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Be More Like Buffett: Buy Fear

Writing for Barron’s this week, Steven M. Sears deftly captures the aspect of buy low—sell high that renders this otherwise simplistic concept virtually impossible for most individual investors. Regarding the much-admired Warren Buffett, Sears says, “Few people have the guts to actually do what he says.” Case in point, Buffett says to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Sears hits the nail on the head however when he says that whenever people have the chance to be greedy, (when others are fearful) they tend to be too terrified to do anything.

My 15 years as a professional investment advisor bears this out. When, during fear-driven markets, I have advised buying attractively-priced securities, I’ve often received incredulous looks, as if I were completely out of my mind. On the flipside, I’ve also received strong-willed support for the exact same advice from other, steely-nerved clients who went on to benefit handsomely. This ability to overcome fear (and greed) during turbulent market cycles is undoubtedly one of the top predictors of investment success.

Read the full story here

Timothy R. Meyer
Meyer Capital Management
President & Chief Investment Officer

Focus On Making Money All The Time…Not Some Of The Time

Even during the best of times, the process of investing is fraught with uncertainty and risk. Think about that for just a moment. During the best of times? Uncertainty? Risk? Really? One could be forgiven for thinking that during the best of times things should be good, clear, predictable, maybe even safe. Frequently, that’s not the case. Often, for investors at least, the best of times and the worst of times look disarmingly similar.

We all know what the worst of times, or in this case, economic turmoil, looks like. It looks a lot like what we have now -- sluggish economic growth, abnormally low interest rates, high unemployment, fiscal crises at the state, federal and global levels, etc. What do the best of times look like? Typically, markets are moving broadly higher, corporate profits are strong, interest rates & inflation are low, and most investors are making money. Take note that there is no green light signal. Even though things are good, worried speculation on the street and in the news is invariably about over-valued assets and imminent corrections and/or contractions destined to send asset prices appreciably lower. Once again, this looks a lot like what we have now – markets moving higher, strong corporate profitability and, without a doubt, plenty of worried speculation.

Since good times and bad can appear the same to investors, switching back & forth between risk seeking (i.e., make money) and risk averse (i.e., avoid losing money) investment strategies is a fool’s errand. It’s much better, in my view, to remain focused on making money all the time and continuously employ investment strategies that are consistent with this stance. Importantly, this does not prevent or eliminate periods of negative investment rate-of-return. What it does do is tilt the odds in your favor that the positive cycle rates-of-return will more than offset the negative cycle returns leaving you, the investor, with a net gain.

Musings on 2011

A week into the New Year, I am reminded of the cottage industry that unfailingly produces a stream of “predictions & forecasts” this time every year. This isn’t a new phenomenon, of course, as we have looked to would-be wizards and wise men down through the ages to preview our fortunes. Taken with a grain of salt, I say “no harm/no foul” to the sport of New Year’s predictions, with one noteworthy exception: financial predictions.

Financial predictions take myriad forms--from which investments will perform best in the year ahead to where the stock market will end the year & everything in between. Financial prognosticators of all stripes make the predictions because they provide easy content for their TV shows, print publications, etc. and they are undeniably entertaining. The danger is that gullible investors bet real money--money they can’t afford to lose--on these highly uncertain outcomes.

To be clear, I revel in the promise and possibilities of the New Year as much as the next person. But rational investors, including me, will concentrate our focus on what we can control—not on what we can’t control. Future predictions and their outcomes are beyond our control and distract us from focusing on things we can actually do something about.

An old quote, “You can’t direct the wind, but you can adjust your sails,” reportedly a German proverb, provides us investors with all the guidance we need. Future predictions are nothing more than wind that will blow in every conceivable direction no matter what we do or don’t do. Our individual portfolios are our sails. This is where we should focus and make adjustments, as necessary. Asset allocation, diversification, risk assessment & mitigation, research, profit-taking & rebalancing, etc. are some of our tools. Not as dazzling perhaps as gazing into the night sky and pondering the stars, but more beneficial to our fortunes in the long run.

Timothy R. Meyer
President & Chief Investment Officer

Why Won't We Learn?

Here’s a mini-rant to start the week. The lead article in the Wall Street Journal today makes two observations well worth calling out. First, the stock market is hitting two-year highs and, second, investors are feeling “more bullish than they have in years.” The article also points out that the market’s “fear gauge” is at its lowest level since April. I guess that’s three observations, but who’s counting?

To be fair, investors may feel less fearful because they see the market value of their current investments rising. That’s a good thing in so far as it goes, but ignores other critical investor considerations like:

1. Capital markets become more risky as asset valuations rise, not less risky, all other things being equal. Therefore, rational investors will become more risk averse, not less, as markets move higher. Risk averse behavior manifests itself in profit-taking, which collectively, investors are unquestionably bad at doing. Who wants to take chips off the table with the markets moving up every day? Wrong! That’s exactly the time to take chips off the table and reinvest in cheaper, out-of-favor asset classes.

2. Each new dollar invested will now buy less (i.e., fewer shares, bonds, etc) not more than it would have previously. Somehow we manage to overlook this simple but critically important factor; even those engaged in asset-accumulation stages of life. We’re willing to pay anything as long as asset prices subsequently move higher. Unfortunately, they often don’t.

3. Income yields (e.g., dividends, interest) decline as asset prices rise and vice-versa, all other things being equal. However, few investors do this simple math and they are worse off because of it. Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.

No wonder then that most individual investors buy-high and sell-low and relatively few make real, permanent money in the capital markets outside of their corporate retirement plans (where mutual fund managers typically do the trading). If you’re a private investor who’s not prepared to embrace these and other important investing concepts, I urge you to find a competent professional to help you. What you don’t know can and will hurt you.

Private Investors Beat A Path -- In The Wrong Direction

The recently-ended 3rd quarter was one for the record books. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +10.4% during the three-month period and had its strongest September performance since 1939 (+7.7%). That’s an astounding 71 years! September is traditionally the market’s worst month from a performance perspective. The Nasdaq Composite Index did even better than the Dow, up +12.3%, followed by the Russell 2000 Index, +10.9%, and the S&P 500 Index, +10.7%.

The record-breaking rally occurred even though market data show that private investors are fleeing stocks in favor of bonds and gold. Money flows in and out of stock mutual funds were negative every month since May. Conversely, bond fund money flows have been strongly positive all year. These money inflows & outflows are explained by the many media reports trumpeting economic and political uncertainty. Taken together, they dominated the headlines and caused many private investors to abandon their strategic stock allocations for perceived safe havens. History has shown, and the 3rd quarter demonstrated again, that this almost never turns out for the better because it invariably leads private investors to sell-low and buy-high.

Have you substantially changed your investment asset allocations lately? If so, what was your #1 motivating factor?

Sidestep This Financial Regulatory Loophole

These days, pretty much every financial services provider claims to put a client’s interests first. It’s great advertising. It’s also shamelessly misleading.

Long-time personal finance author, Jane Bryant Quinn, sets the record straight in a recent blog post. She writes:

Senator Tim Johnson socked investors with what might be a knockout punch, during negotiations on the financial reform bill last week. Johnson, known as the “senator from Citibank,” habitually sides with the financial industry and against consumers. He’s the only Democrat who opposed last year’s legislation to curb credit card abuses.

A South Dakota Democrat, Johnson laughs at the concept of “fiduciary duty” — the idea that people who advise you on investments should put your financial interests ahead of their own.

At present, Registered Investment Advisers have a fiduciary duty toward you and your money. But there’s an exception for stockbrokers and insurance agents. They can—and do—advise you to buy financial products that benefit themselves more than they benefit you.

For example, it’s okay for them to offer you high-cost mutual funds when low-cost funds are available that invest the same way. It’s okay for them to sell you a high-cost, out-of-state 529 college savings plan when your own state’s plan costs less and gives you a tax deduction, too.

Johnson’s aggressive language might yet be watered down, but brokers and insurance agents won’t have to change their ways anytime soon.

Few consumers really understand what it means for a provider to put a client’s interests first. Try it, ask a friend or neighbor. Invariably they‘ll argue convincingly that their broker or insurance agent does precisely that.

How many of those people would also, at one time, have insisted that their mortgage broker was putting their interests first when he/she sold them a sub-prime or hybrid mortgage that now they can’t afford? How unfortunate…and preventable. We need to wake up!

Ms. Quinn’s examples of fiduciary duty, or lack thereof, make the concept easy to comprehend and recognize in practice. Being familiar with them can not only save you money…it can make you money. Read her full article here: Investor Protection Gets Knocked Out of the Financial Reform Law

We’re Feel’n Mighty Gloomy

Investing requires some optimism about the future and at the moment we’re not feeling it, according to National data reported today. Reports show that 62% of adults feel the United Sates is on the wrong track, and 57% of voters would prefer to elect a new person to Congress than re-elect their local incumbent representatives.

Glimmers of optimism that emerged in the spring have been snuffed out by frustration over the gulf oil spill. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan drag on. The economy limps along on one leg. High unemployment persists.

Health care reform passed but left many unconvinced of its value. Wall Street is perceived to be little more than a casino with the odds stacked in favor of the house. Financial regulatory reform grinds slowly through Congress and whatever passes may be so watered down that it is as suspect as the healthcare reform bill. All the while, tougher regulation of the oil and insurance industries waits on the back burner.

Given our sour mood, few of us want to even look at our 401(k) or IRA accounts, let alone actively manage our investments or make additional contributions. It’s easy to procrastinate and rationalize doing nothing.

My advice is don’t give in. Refuse to give up. Yes, things might look bleak. As a country, we’re definitely discouraged. But throwing in the towel never won anything. Sometimes, the best we can do is just persevere. Times change & this too will pass.

Timothy Meyer Named a FIVE STAR Wealth Manager for 2nd Straight Year

This is a public “THANK YOU!” to the unknown MCM client(s) who nominated me and my colleagues at Meyer Capital Management for the FIVE STAR: Best in Client Satisfaction Wealth Manager Award. We are thrilled to receive this recognition for one simple reason…it comes from clients. In other words, those individuals & families who have experienced our work first-hand and whom we have served for an extended period of time.

FIVE STAR Wealth Managers are limited to no more than 7% of the wealth managers in a market area and are selected via rigorous third-party research. Wealth managers cannot simply pay a fee to be included.

Each nominee is evaluated on 9 criteria: 1) customer service, 2) integrity, 3) knowledge/expertise, 4) communication, 5) value for fee charged, 6) how well the manager meets client objectives, 7) post sale service, 8) quality of recommendations, and 9) overall satisfaction. Nominees are also screened based on their regulatory & compliance history. Wealth mangers must have at least five years of experience to be considered.

We take great pride in our work. To be appreciated by those we work for is the best compensation. Again, "THANK YOU!"